At the start of the season most people thought that if Chelsea were not going to retain the title that they won with three games to spare, then Man City would probably be the best bet to claim their third Premier League trophy in five seasons.

Now, as we know, this season has not gone entirely to plan. Chelsea, having skirted with relegation earlier in the campaign, look likely to finish mid table and Leicester City have come from nowhere to possible champions.

With just twelve games to go until the end of the season Manchester City still have a chance of winning the league but after back to back defeats to title rivals – at home – things are looking very precarious.

Manuel Pellegrini is in the unusual position of knowing that he won’t be around next season and will be wanting a league title as a going away present. But what are the crucial must-win matches for City if they are to deliver that parting gift?

Liverpool Away – Wednesday 2nd March

It may seem like a cliché but the next game is always the most important – and especially as it is a visit to Anfield. Jürgen Klopp’s gegenpressing revolution has not really arrived but Liverpool have just about spluttered into European contention. A win for City here will get the confidence back and give the side belief again.

Manchester United – Sunday 20th March

The Manchester derby is never a tame affair and United will love nothing more than to take three points from their city rivals and derail their title hopes. It doesn’t matter about the current form of either side when it comes to this fixture so City know anything could happen.

Bournemouth – Saturday 2nd April

Possibly not the most obvious fixture to include here but at this stage of the season this is the type of game that City just simply must win if they have a hope of winning the league. There will be only six or seven games left after this so not coming away from the south coast with three points is unthinkable.

Southampton – Saturday 30th April

Another unlikely ‘crucial’ fixture perhaps but if you are losing games in late April you are not winning the league. Another tricky away fixture for City, Southampton have not looked quite as crisp and clinical this season as they did last campaign but they will also have European hopes so don’t expect this to be an easy three points.

Arsenal – Saturday 7th May

There is the possibility that this could be a title decider. Or, given the unpredictable nature of this season, it could be a dead rubber only deciding bragging rights. Either way, City will need to win at home against Wenger’s men and hope by that time that this is a very meaningful fixture.

With Leicester – and Spurs for that matter – playing the way they have this season these fixtures may not have any crucial factor to them at all. It may be the case that the amount of extra games City may have to face will have more of a say on the title than any league match. Leicester, with no European, FA Cup or League Cup commitments know that they can concentrate purely on the league while their rivals are forced to navigate the rigours of multiple matches in a week until the end of the season.

If Pellegrini and City are to be successful it could one of the greatest conclusions to a league season ever. But the way the campaign has gone so far there just isn’t any way to tell what might happen.